China’s latest growth numbers were met with dismay by investors – equity markets plummeted across Asia on Thursday – many of whom believe that Beijing is losing control of an overheating economy.

　　中國的最新增長數據令投資者頗為沮喪——亞洲股市上周四全線下挫。許多投資者認為，北京正逐漸失去對過熱經濟的控制。

　　But are these concerns fully justified? A closer look at the data suggests not only that the Chinese economy may be beginning to cool down, but that measures taken by authorities to rein in inflation are starting – and will continue – to pay dividends.

　　但這些擔憂完全合理嗎？更仔細看一下這些數據就會發現，不僅中國經濟可能已開始降溫，而且中國政府遏制通脹的措施也已開始——并將繼續——發揮效用。

　　The data show that China’s gross domestic product expanded at 9.8 per cent in the fourth quarter compared to a year earlier. Comparing this figure to estimates of the economy’s underlying trend of 6-7 per cent, many analysts have concluded that current growth levels are excessive and inflation is set to continue rising.

　　數據顯示，中國第四季度國內生產總值(GDP)同比增長9.8%。將這一數字與中國6%到7%的潛在增長率進行對比后，許多分析師得出的結論是，中國目前的增長水平過高，通脹勢將繼續高企。

　　Yet as Gavyn Davies has pointed out, this comparison may not make much sense in China’s case, since its “underlying” GDP is far harder to pin than that of developed countries: "China is passing through a prolonged process of convergence with the developed economies, and inflation is triggered when the speed limits on that convergence are exceeded. These limits are set by factors like the speed at which labour can migrate from rural agriculture to urban agriculture, and the speed at which the capital stock…can be increased to absorb the available labour supply."

　　不過，正如加文?戴維斯(Gavyn Davies)所指出的，就中國而言，這種對比可能意義不大，因為中國的“潛在”GDP遠比發達國家更難以確定。“中國正在經歷向發達經濟體靠攏的漫長過程，這種靠攏一旦超速，就會引發通脹。至于是否超速，則是由多種因素決定的，比如勞動力從農村農業遷向城鎮農業的速度，能夠吸收有效勞動力供給的資本存量增加的速度。”

　　Davies calculates that the current “speed limit” for the Chinese economy is 8-9 per cent. More importantly, he thinks excess GDP growth actually fell towards the end of 2010 – in stark contrast to most analysts. This is also the case when looking at indicators such as industrial production.

　　戴維斯估計，中國經濟目前的“速度限制”是8%到9%。更重要的是，他認為，過快的GDP增長在2010年末實際上已有所下降——這與大多數分析師的觀點形成鮮明對比。工業產值等指標的情況也是如此。

　　Inflationary pressures should therefore be easing. This is confirmed by Thursday’s data, which show that headline inflation fell from 5.1 per cent in November to 4.6 per cent in December.

　　因此，通脹壓力應該正在緩和。這一點得到了上周四數據的證實——數據顯示，12月份的總體通脹率已從11月份的5.1%下降至4.6%。

　　China bears respond that this is likely to be a temporary dip. Excess liquidity in the economy from Beijing’s crisis-induced lending spree will continue to inflation asset bubbles – particularly in the property market – and push up prices, they argue.

　　唱空中國的人士回答說，通脹下降可能只是暫時性的。他們提出，危機促使中國政府大舉放貸，向經濟中注入了過多的流動性，這些流動性將繼續吹大資產泡沫——尤其是在房地產市場——推高價格。

　　It is true that there is an overhang of excessive liquidity growth in China. But there are indications that some of remedial measures taken by Beijing – such as reserve requirement hikes, lending limits and interest rate rises – are bearing fruit.

　　的確，中國存在流動性過度增長的問題。但有跡象表明，中國政府采取的一些補救措施（諸如上調存款準備金率，限制放貸，上調利率等），已經開始見效。

　　According to Thursday’s data, growth in outstanding loans fell by around $200bn in the 2010 compared with 2009, while growth in outstanding deposits fell by around $170bn. This is consistent with a recent drop in property sales growth across the country and falling house price inflation.

　　根據上周四的數據，2010年，中國貸款余額較2009年少增加了約2000億美元，各項存款余額少增約1700億美元。這與最近全國房屋銷售下滑及房價增幅下降的情況是一致的。

　　Equally importantly, growth of the broad money supply (M2) was 19.7 per cent in December 2010, 8 percentage points lower than at at the end of 2009. The growth of narrow money (M1), meanwhile, fell by an even steeper 11.2 percentage points.

　　同樣重要的是，去年12月，廣義貨幣供應(M2)的增幅為19.7%，同比回落8個百分點。狹義貨幣供應(M1)的增幅回落更大，為11.2個百分點。

　　Liquidity growth is still high, admittedly, but the trend is in the right direction. And with further measures on the way, there are strong grounds for believing that Beijing will succeed in capping credit and monetary growth over the next 12 months, bringing inflation down to a manageable level.

　　流動性增長雖然依舊很高，但趨勢是對的。隨著更多措施的逐步出臺，我們有充足的理由相信，在未來的12個月內，中國政府將成功抑制信貸和貨幣增長，將通脹拉低至可控制的水平。

　　HSBC expects credit growth to be reduced to 16 per cent in 2011 through a range of “sticks” to rein in bank lending, including punitive rates on central bank bills for banks that lend too much. It also expects 200 basis points of RRR hikes, which will freeze more than $210bn of liquidity in the Chinese banking system.

　　匯豐銀行(HSBC)預計，通過一系列抑制銀行放貸的“大棒”，包括以“懲罰性利率”向放貸過多的銀行發行定向央票，今年的信貸增長將會降至16%。該行還預計，存款準備金率會上調200個基點，從而凍結中國銀行系統中逾2100億美元的流動性。

　　Combined with supply-side measures to control rising food prices, these measures are “likely to start slowing inflation meaningfully by the middle of the year”, says HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin.

　　匯豐銀行大中華區首席經濟學家屈宏斌表示，加上抑制食品價格上漲的供給方面的措施，這些措施“到年中可能會有效減緩通脹。”

　　This is a view shared with Societe Generale’s Cross Asset research team, which believes that inflation could start its slow descent towards more normal levels as soon as the end of the first quarter of 2011: "Inflation risk is skewed to the upside, but we expect continued, careful policy tightening by authorities. Interest rate hikes should be more evident in 2011, while other policy options (loan quotas, RRR changes) continue to be pursued…We attribute a 70 per cent probability to this scenario."

　　 這個觀點得到了法國興業銀行(Société Générale)的認同。法國興業銀行相信，到今年一季度末，通脹就會開始向較為正常的水平逐漸回落。“通脹風險偏于上行，但我們預期相關政府部門會繼續實施謹慎的收緊政策。2011年加息的可能性加大，其它政策選擇（貸款額度、調整存款準備金率）也將繼續使用……我們認為這種情況發生的可能性為70%。”

　　But will growth be compromised in the process? No, says Hongbin, who points out that credit growth of 16 per cent will provide sufficient funds to cover the more than 100,000 ongoing infrastructure projects in the country.

　　但這一進程會損害增長嗎？屈宏斌表示不會。他指出，16%的信貸增長，將足夠保證中國逾10萬個在建基礎設施項目所需資金。

　　Further, and contrary to common economic wisdom, rate hikes may even stimulate consumer spending by making China’s high proportion of savers $11.4bn better off.

　　另外，與普遍的經濟觀點相反，加息甚至可能會刺激消費者支出，因為它會讓中國高比例的儲戶增加114億美元的經濟收入。

　　The overall message is clear: the Chinese economy, though somewhat erratically and incrementally, is moving in the right direction. For the moment, at least, the market’s cries of pain ring hollow.

　　總體信息很明確：盡管有些不穩定，盡管是漸進式的，但中國經濟正向著正確的方向行進。至少眼下，市場的哀嚎聽上去有些空洞。