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It is exactly 10 years since China concluded negotiations to join the World Trade Organisation, after a decade and a half of demurring. Commerce minister Chen Deming chaired a celebratory forum in Xiamen this week entitled “Openness, co-operation and win-win”.
中國結束談判成功加入世界貿易組織(WTO)已整整10年,在此之前曾遭遇長達15年的猶豫。中國商務部部長陳德銘上周在廈門主持了題為“開放,合作,共贏”的論壇以示慶祝。
Not quite. Yes, China is co-operating. After a diffident start, it has evolved from a passive taker of the existing rules to a member that will “shake” the rules for its own interests or even make new ones, notes Henry Gao of Singapore Management University. That is a good thing. And if “openness” implies compliance with the commitments China made in its accession package, here, too, the record is broadly positive.
事實未必完全如此。沒錯,中國正在參與合作。新加坡管理大學教授高樹超(Henry Gao)指出,從最初的不自信開始,中國已逐漸從一個被動接受現有規則的成員,逐步演變成一個愿意為自身利益而“撼動”原有規則,甚至愿意訂立新規則的成員。這是一件好事。而且,如果“開放”指的是中國履行了加入世貿時作出的承諾,那么這項紀錄大體來說也不錯。
Granted, China is better at complying with rules that require a specific action, such as scrapping or reducing tariffs, than those that require adherence to principles, such as not favouring domestic enterprises, or treating all WTO members equally. No nation has entered into bilateral trade agreements over the past 10 years quite as enthusiastically as China.
當然,中國更擅長于遵守的,是那些需要作出具體行動的規則,例如取消或減免關稅,而并非那些要求堅持原則的規則,例如不偏袒國內企業、或者對所有世貿組織成員一視同仁。在過去十年中,沒有任何一個國家像中國這樣,對建立雙邊貿易協定如此熱衷。
As for “win-win”, well, China is certainly winning. In 2000 it was the world’s seventh largest exporter and eighth largest importer of merchandise; in 2010 it was number one and two, respectively. (It has leapt to four and three in services, from 10 and 12.) As ING points out, accession to the WTO marked an acceleration of real annual gross domestic product growth from 9 percent (1992-2001) to 11 percent (2002-2008). Two-way trade for most nations in China’s orbit has also risen dramatically. But, as America’s increasingly critical assessments of China’s WTO compliance suggests, those trading partners do not always feel like winners. During its relatively brief membership, the world’s second-largest economy has responded to 22 complaints – more than the next three put together.
至于在“雙贏”方面,中國毫無疑問是贏家。 2000年,它是世界第七大商品出口國和第八大商品進口國;而到2010年,上述排名已分別躍升為第一和第二。(在服務出口和進口的國家排名中,中國也分別從第十和十二名,躍居第四和第三。)正如ING所指出的,加入世貿組織,已令中國的實際GDP年增長率從1992年至2001年的9%,加快至2002年至2008年的11%。中國周邊多數國家的雙向貿易額也得到了快速增長。但是,從美國對于中國履行入世承諾所作出的日趨批評性的評估看,中國的貿易伙伴們并不總能感到自己也是贏家。在中國還算相對短暫的世貿成員生涯中,全球第二大經濟體已回應了22項申訴 —— 超過位于其排名之后的三個經濟體所遭遇的申訴總和。
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